Many scenarios are currently being analyzed, weighed up, and considered probable or less probable. Completely normal work for the secret services/agencies, the militaries and other research and advisory institutions, aka think tanks.
The media then love to report on these vaguenesses and garnish them with statements from alleged “anonymous seniors”. Lazy journalism.

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But for two years, if not longer, all of these expensive institutions of the Israeli and US security establishments have been failing. And continue to fail. Eyes wide open. Thanks to social media like X, everybody can see it. The emperors are nude.
None of the institutions saw 7/10 coming. All think tanks? No. One man saw it coming. Yigal Carmon.
And it was not that difficult to get an intuition that something was going on in Aza if you watched for example, the anniversary video of Hamas one year before 7/10 (the 35th anniversary on December 2022). It’s one example out of many. You need not be an expert to understand what is on the agenda. Hamas makes its aims clear.
We saw the humiliation of the surrender deal brokered by the Qatar Man Witkoff. About 2.000 “Palestinian” baby killers are released. The fail of the IDF, its doctrines and the security establishment is another story which I skip and I assume as known.
Finally, the bitter truth: Our babies and children were slaughtered by the “Palestinian” terror organisation Hamas. It is a fact proven to say that the “Palestinian” terror organisations are baby killers. They did it and announced they would do it again.
For today, it means that any idea of coexistence with the “Palestinians” is done.
The same applies to 9/11 or the series of incorrect predictions about what would happen if Israel attacked Aza, took Rafia, attacked Hezbollah or attacked the Mullah regime. All the over-confident security agencies shouted and continue to shout: “We will see The end of the world what will be Israel’s fault of course!” However, everyone was wrong, to put it very kindly. Or let’s put it bluntly: All security agencies, including the Israeli security establishment, failed. We cannot trust them anymore.
And the failure continues. Nobody had foreseen the rapid, almost silent collapse of Assad’s dictatorship, the sudden withdrawal of the Russians or the disruption of the Mullah regime. Nobody.
Now, these nobodies are back in the front row and are paid dearly. They give their advice and put forward scenarios. The scenarios are politically quite easy to classify and don’t need to be taken seriously.
The media keeps the interested public dumb. Their view is supposed to remain narrow and docile. Dark sources are brought into play. Media tell self-sufficient, independent thinkers, aka citizens, what to think. Why? Their shouting is “No Way! How you dare to utter your opinion! We know so much more! We are the enlightened gatekeepers. You are so small, we are so big. We have dark sources that say things so explosive that you can only whisper them anonymously.”
Does anyone notice this blatant deception? If it is so explosive and secret, you will not find out about it anonymously or openly, let alone be said. So only lies and opinions are spread about hearsay that people want to enforce. And then reality strikes. Hard as nails, as they say. You are surprised.
This is where the speculation begins. The most famous question of all: What if?
Syria. A multi-ethnic and multi-religious state. Shaped by socialism, Arabism and Islamism. In between, many minorities do not want to conform to Islamism and Jihadism. The largest are, without a doubt, the Kurds. With 40 million – scattered across three states (Turkey, Syria and Iran) and a sizeable diaspora – the Kurds cannot be described as a minority. Then there are the Druze, Yazidis, Christians and many more.

Furthermore, Syria is a de facto Turkish province, as the meme above shows. Most of the members of the Syrian government are of Turkish descent. So we have to think out of the box. At least Syria must be split into three states. Two of them will and have to be democracies.

Turkey. From Turkey’s point of view, the Sunni hegemon, supported by the Qatari Muslim Brotherhood, has clear goals that Erdogan offers in almost every speech. His goals are no secret. The problem is that the stupid left-woke West, some influential conservative Rini circles and the cowardly elites of Israel think it is just folklore.
This assessment is due to the stupidity and incompetence of the many think tanks (and the discreet money from Qatar to many of these think tanks and research institutions).
Back to Turkey. What does Erdogan want? 1. Restoration of the Ottoman Empire 2. Extermination of all Kurds, 3. Conquest of Jerusalem.
The Mullah regime on the Shiite side is pursuing similar goals with its accent and tongue (which means, the Mullah Regime is not a NATO member. Instead the Mullah regime wants the bomb). The Western left (Obama, Biden, Merkel, Scholz, Macron, Merz, Stermer, to name a few pars pro toto) see Islam as a partner and Israel as the thorn that they finally want to see removed.
Why? It is simple: The left is anti-Semitic and anti-democratic. The left wants a Middle East with Turkey and Iran as the hegemons. Saudi Arabia plays no role in this scenario. Saudi Arabia knows this, too. It is allowed to survive as a buffer state.
Egypt does not want to play a role either but is forced to do so. Egypt has set its focus firmly on North Africa, Nile Africa and the Suez Canal. That’s fair.
A “Palestinian” state is, insofar in Egypt’s cards, to get rid off all the Muslim Brothers. The “Palestinian” story started in Egypt with the Egyptian terrorist Arafat. And suddenly, Egypt see itself in the position to threaten Israel in the South, seeing Turkey in the North and beyond the Mullah regime. The temptation is great.
Iran is done and can only survive with the help of Russia and China. Both have other problems. If Russia and China get their deals with Trump, Iran will likely be dropped by Russia and China. However, Iran remains dangerous because the nuclear outbreak is very close. The Mullah regime must be attacked within days. There is no alternative except a revolution in Iran, which is not in sight.
Israel. Israel has prevailed over the paper tigers and destroyed them with its hands tied behind its back. One hand was tied by the Western left and the Obama/Biden Administration. As we know today, Biden spent directly about $2 billion to Hamas and financed left-wing NGOs to topple the government in Israel.
The other was and is tied by the Israeli left and its unelected deep-state elites. In summary, without this so-called “ironclad support”, Israel would have very likely won the war within 2 months and all hostages released.
The big challenge is that the elites of Israel never had the guts to win a war. Now, Israel will only survive by winning the war. Israel must, for the first time in its history, win a war.
To win a war means that the enemy surrenders unconditionally, and any idea to restart is destroyed, as in the case of Japan or Germany. And even more. Japanese and Germans have a right to live in Germany and Japan because they are the indigenous people of their countries.
But in the case of the “Palestinians”, no such right exists. Why? The “Palestinians” are fabricated by the Muslim Brotherhood, tied to National Socialism, and Soviet Communism, and were presented in 1965 by an Egyptian terrorist, which is why the “Palestinians” are basically an Egypt problem. The “Palestinians” are neither an ethnicity, people or nation. They are Arab Muslims which follows an antidemocratic, genocidal ideology of “Palestinianism“.
And now here we are: The Golan Heights are Israel, including Mount Hermon. No one should seriously believe for a second that Israel will ever give up this topographical advantage. It is not just for solid geostrategic and military reasons; no, it is about the essence, the soul of Israel.
This area is part of the promised land: Eretz Yisroel. The mission of Israel, the very base of Israel’s soul, is written down in the Tora.
Without Tora, no Israel. Not taking the promised land does not make sense. That is the reason why we return home and why Israel exists.
The scenario looks like this: Turkey will conquer Syria and Lebanon completely and stop at the Golan Heights, maybe. The siege of Israel at the North begins. In the South Egypt is preparing the siege and more.
Are our elites, the IDF, prepared for this? And please, after the continuous defeats and failures since 7/10, no one from these echelons should dare to say that “…it is not likely, so we do not need to be prepared. It is enough if we send out signals. Then, the enemy will be afraid and will retreat.” How many times must this wrong strategy of the Israeli elites fail before the Israeli elites realize that their assumptions are simply wrong?
So, Israel must be ready for a confrontation with Turkey and Egypt. If Israel does not watch out, it could be overrun. Therefore, the Golan Heights with Mount Hermon are geostrategical keystones which keep Israel safe. A Druze state and a Kurdish state are a must.
In the South, there is only one strategical area which Israel does not hold: Judea. This must change. Israel must declare sovereighnity over Aza, Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem with the Temple Mount and to expel all “Palestinians” . There is no alternative.
On which side will NATO stand? It is difficult to say because it is not clear whether NATO will last at all. Trump seems to be very ready to leave NATO and the UN. However, Trump will likely support Israel. With or without NATO.
But Israel has to prove to be a strong and worthy ally. Worth being an ally of the USA, which means to defend democracy and freedom as a model, exemplar, forerunner. At the moment, there is doubt to hear in the corridors of the Trump administration.
Those corridors also notice that the left deep state rules and free speech are under attack in Israel. The Torah demands from the Am Israel: To be a light to free the world. Israel should remember and stick to its mission. The typical attitude of Israel’s elites of hesitation, procrastination, and cowardice does not pay off anymore. Now Israel needs elites with a King David spirit. The heroic Lion warriors of Israel are already there and restlessly dig the ground. Israel, the Am Israel, finally wants to win.
The window of opportunity to bring down the Mullah regime is very, very narrow because of Turkey. Turkey can shield the Mullah regime. Price: Iran allows Turkey to finish the Kurds in Iran. A price Iran will pay without even wasting one second of thought.
That is why any hesitation by Israel is a grave mistake. Israel must create a fait accompli. Take down the Mullah regime, annihilate the Hamas, “PA” and all the other “Palestinian” organisations and supporters, build alliances with the non-Muslim minorities and deliver the full judicial, aka democratic, reform.
In the tough times ahead, Israel must become a better, more robust democracy with a free market and free speech. For the moment, Israel is ruled by unelected left elites of the deep state, and the economy resembles more of a socialist economy.
Conclusion: Israel must be better prepared for one of the worst cases, that Turkey will fully conquer Syria and Lebanon and Egypt start war in the South.
However, there is another, very bold speculation: What if Israel becomes the 51st state of the USA after the USA took Aza as US state territory? But that’s another “What If“-story.

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Adopted version from 17.12.2024. Pic by Pexels.com