The “Ceasefire” with Hezbollah aka Mullah Regime aka Lebanon. My 5 Cent and Voices (Ongoing updates)

With whom do we make the deal? In fact, we have a unified front against Israel. We should stop playing along this ridiculous game. Name the one enemy. He is showing up in many masks just to distort. Israel should bring the war to the doorsteps of the Mullah regime.

Soon the elected government of Israel will decide. Whatever the government decides I will stand behind our elected government. However, I will voice my criticism until the vote. After that, every decision must be accepted and supported. All the pros and cons have been exchanged. Democracy now prevails.

My 5 Cents (before 20.00 PM Israeli time on the 26.11.2024)

1. We have now a kind of a second ‘disengagement’. All the promises and outlooks given by our government I do not trust anymore. Too many promises were broken. If you retreat under fire it is not victory, not ceasefire but defeat.

2. Let us assume you are correct. Let us assume we fully trust Netanyahu as an honest leader. Let us assume that Israel was blackmailed by Biden, and I am inclined to believe it, then I await Netanyahu to use the 60 days to settle/fix the “inner front”. I and many more elected the coalition for a reason. Big promises, big words from the full right-wing government.

However, none delivered: Full justicial reform, depowering the deep state, dismissing the heads of the unelected elites, no more burning of the streets by an unhinged left, tackling the oligopolistic structures by opening the markets, lowering the costs of living, less bureaucracy, better streets, defunding the state media, building a wall to Jordan, free praying at the Temple Mount for Jews … a long list. All promised by the full right-wing government. Zero results.

So the government has to build up trust and confidence. One step to building trust is to dismiss all four heads of the unelected elites of the deep state and end selective enforcement. If Netanyahu can’t deliver this petitesse (which will most likely not be blocked from Biden by blackmailing) the government is done.

For the moment we have no victory, just humiliation and no reform, just folding to the pressure of some lunatic Kaplanisti burning the streets. What is the performance of the full right-wing government?

3. What will we do if Biden repeats the blackmailing and orders the implementation of the antidemocratic and antisemitic “Palestinian” terror state now or no weapons and UNSC sanctions?

Voices

Marc Zell posts on X: “Hezbollah drone and missile barrages are continuing at this hour against civilian targets in northern Israel. How does a self-respecting sovereign nation actually consider entering into a ceasefire agreement with a terrorist organization like Hezbollah and expect them to keep the peace? Pure Insanity.“

Jonathan Conricus speaks hopefully of a pause: “My take on the upcoming temporary cease fire deal: I hope this is just a temporary pause in operations to allow Israel to regroup and deal with the real threat to its security – the Iranian Regime – and not the last word between Israel and Hezbollah. Time will tell.“

Open Source Analysis says: “Netanyahu addressed the cabinet, saying that while the cease-fire agreement is not ideal, it avoids a greater risk: the U.S. potentially imposing a unilateral decision in the Security Council to halt the war, which could lead to sanctions against Israel and limit its ability to respond to future violations. He explained that without an agreement, Israel could face both a cease-fire and restricted action. Securing a two-month extension with a U.S. commitment to retaliate against any breach is a better alternative under the circumstances. So the Biden admin is twisting Israel’s hand as departure gift?“

Shurat HaDin asks for to address the right ones: “The Islamic regime in Iran is the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism. They are in charge of proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon.“

Vivid blames the left Biden/Harris administration. Do not forget, I may add, the left is an antidemocratic and and antisemitic movement: “Joe Biden is pushing Benjamin Netanyahu to approve the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon in exchange for the removal of the U.S arms embargo on Israel. Biden is literally blackmailing Netanyahu while Israel is fighting for its survival. Wow.“

Uri Kurlianchik does express some distrust: “Let me tell you what’s going to happen after the ceasefire. Hezbollah will launch a missile but Israel won’t respond because it was an accident. Then Hezbollah will launch another missile and Israel won’t respond because it was a rogue organization. Then Hezbollah will launch another missile and Israel won’t respond because meh, it’s almost the weekend. Then Hezbollah will launch another missile and Israel won’t respond because fuck you and your security, we’re doing great business in Randomfuckistan right now and don’t won’t to ruin it. Then Hezbollah will slaughter 2,000 Jews and everyone will say “oops” and Randomfuckistan will congratulate them.”

Along this pessimistic view voices like Mica Avni nailed it: “A ceasefire under rocket fire is surrender, not victory. A true victory is a decisive result: the enemy surrenders, the hostages are returned, security is guaranteed, and we set the terms. A ceasefire is a continuation of the restraint of October 6 – a defeatist approach of yesterday’s people. Peace is achieved only through complete victory.”

The strongest analsis and words come from ‘Reservists of the Victory Generation‘ (Miluim Nikim) They say:

“War Cabinet, if you go for the surrender agreement in Lebanon = the blood of those who fell is on your hand! Promoting an agreement that includes the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon spits in the faces of the residents of the north, IDF fighters and the bereaved families whose sons’ blood was spared, allows Hezbollah to recover and advances the Fourth Lebanon War in a short time. Over the past few months in Lebanon, we have lost our comrades in arms and we will not give in to such a nightmare agreement. If the Israeli government and the General Staff do not plan to bring us to victory in the campaign, they should step aside. With this agreement, you are returning Hezbollah to the fence and advancing the Fourth Lebanon War!“

David Daoud elaborated one of the pain points of the current “ceasefire”. It even does not match the weak UNSC Resolution 1701. The position of Israel is now weaker than 18 years ago: “Another thing to note about the current Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal: it’s narrower in scope than Resolution 1701. That resolution required Lebanon to demilitarize south Lebanon as a preliminary step to disarming all armed groups throughout the country. This explicitly only calls for disarmament south of “Line A,” i.e. the Litani River. Furthermore, even there it gives Lebanon wiggle room to play the same sleight of hand it has done with Hezbollah and Resolution 1701 for decades: namely, it only requires the disarmament of “unofficial armed groups.” Lebanon has long given Hezbollah recognition as its official resistance arm, going back to how Beirut reinterpreted the Taif Agreement’s requirement to disarm all militias to grant an exception to Hezbollah as a “resistance organization” meant to liberate Israeli-occupied Lebanese lands.” Prof. Gerald M Steinberg points too at some basic fails: “Lots of hype re potential Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. And major questions: 1) Does IDF stay in place in S. Lebanon, and for how long? Can’t imagine they’d withdraw without credible (not UNIFIL) in-place alternative force. 2) Is IDF deployment in S. Lebanon sufficient to allow safe return of ~50,000 displaced Israeli civilians? And large scale rebuilding of destroyed homes, schools etc? 3) What happens when Hezbollah is caught committing 1st violation (bringing in new weapons, “accidental” shooting, etc? TBC“

Or Fialkov gave a frightening perspective of the “ceasefire deal”. Israel may run into to the trap to give away, again, state territory.

The cabinet Benett/Lapid/Gantz already did it without asking the Knesset and people of Israel. They gave away maritime state territory to Lebanon to appease Hezbollah. Well we all know, the Oslo strategy failed on 7/10. The give away embolded the Mullah regime and ordered the genocidal attack from Hamas on the 7th of October 2023.

In the meantime 180 targets are attacked by the IDF and still counting. Maybe we will win the war before the ceasefire comes into effect.

SPEECH OF Premier Minister NETANYAHU (26.11.2024, 20.00 Israeli Time)

“Citizens of Israel,

I promised you victory – and we will achieve victory.

We will complete the elimination of Hamas, return all our hostages, ensure that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel, and return the residents of the north safely to their homes.

The war will not end until we achieve all of its goals, including until we return the residents of the north safely home. And I want to tell you – it will happen, just as it happened in the south.

My friends, residents of the north,

I am proud of you. I am proud of your resilience – and I am fully committed to your security, to the reconstruction of your communities, to your future.

So far, thanks to the heroism of our fighters in the IDF, the Shin Bet, the Mossad, and the Israel Police, we have achieved tremendous achievements on the seven fronts of the ‘War of Rebirth.’

These achievements cause astonishment and admiration throughout the world, and they project Israel’s power throughout the Middle East:

First – at the top of the octopus – in Iran. We destroyed significant parts of its air defense and missile production capacity, and we destroyed a significant component of its nuclear program.

I am determined to do whatever is necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. This threat is always at the forefront of my mind, and this is especially true today, when we hear the repeated declarations of Iranian leaders about their intention to acquire nuclear weapons. For me, removing this threat is the most important task in ensuring the existence and future of the State of Israel.

In Gaza – we dismantled the Hamas battalions, killed about 20,000 terrorists, eliminated Sinwar, eliminated Daf, eliminated the organization’s senior leaders, and returned 154 of our hostages. We are committed to bringing everyone home; The 101 hostages remaining in Gaza, both the living and the dead, and to put an end to the terrible suffering of their families. We are of course committed to completing the destruction of Hamas.

In Judea and Samaria – we are eliminating hundreds of terrorists, we are destroying terrorist infrastructures and we are operating in all terrorist strongholds. There is no place we do not reach.

In Yemen – we have strongly attacked the Houthi port of Hodeidah – something the international coalition has not done before.

In Iraq – we have successfully stopped, and are still stopping, many drone attacks, and here too we have challenges ahead of us.

In Syria – we are systematically thwarting the attempts of Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian army to transfer weapons to Lebanon. Assad must understand – he is playing with fire.

And now the seventh front – Lebanon. Hezbollah chose to attack us from there on October 8th. A year has passed – it is no longer the same Hezbollah. We set it back decades. We eliminated Nasrallah, the axis of the axis. We eliminated all the organization’s senior leaders, destroyed most of its missiles and rockets, eliminated thousands of terrorists, and destroyed the underground and terrorist infrastructures near our border – infrastructures that had been built over years.

We attacked strategic targets all over Lebanon, and brought down dozens of the terror towers in Dahya. The ground in Beirut is shaking.

Citizens of Israel,

Just three months ago, all of this would have sounded like science fiction. But it’s not science fiction. We did it.

I want to tell you – at any given moment in the conduct of this campaign, I look at all the fronts simultaneously. That’s how I did it when I decided at the beginning of the war to focus on Gaza, and not to open a broad second front in Lebanon. That’s how I did it a few months ago when the conditions were ripe to turn north, and then we decided to focus on Hezbollah.

That is how I acted following the missile attack from Iran, when we carefully chose the timing and nature of the response.

And that is how I act today. I look at all fronts simultaneously and I see the big picture. I am determined to give our heroic soldiers the full means to preserve their lives and bring us victory.

Therefore, citizens of Israel,

tonight I will submit to the cabinet for approval a framework for a ceasefire in Lebanon. The duration of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon.

In full understanding with the United States, we maintain full military freedom of action. If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself – we will attack. If it tries to renew terrorist infrastructure near the border – we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck with missiles – we will attack.

I hear the argument that if we enter into a ceasefire, we will not be able to attack and we will not be able to renew the war. I remind you – this is exactly what they told me when we made the ceasefire in Gaza in order to free our hostages. They said we would not go back to fighting, we did, and we went back to fighting, and in a big way.

They tell me: Hezbollah will sit quietly for a year or two, it will get stronger, and then it will attack us. But Hezbollah will violate the ceasefire not only if it shoots at us. It will also violate the agreement when it tries to arm itself in order to shoot at us in the future. For every violation it makes – we will respond forcefully.

I know there are those who do not believe that we will do this. But many also did not believe that we would enter the Gaza Strip by land – and we did. They did not believe that we would enter Shifa and Khan Yunis – and we did.

They did not believe that in the face of enormous international pressure we would enter Rafah and Philadelphia, and not only that we entered – we attacked, and how we attacked. There were also many who did not believe that we would be attacked in Lebanon – and we attacked there too. We attacked with a force and sophistication that surprised the entire world.

So after all this, maybe it’s worth starting to believe? To believe in our determination, in our path, in our commitment to victory.

So why make a ceasefire now? There are three main reasons:

First reason – focusing on the Iranian threat. And I won’t elaborate on that.

Second reason – complete renewal and regeneration of forces. And I’m telling you openly, because it’s no secret: there were major delays in the supply of weapons and ammunition. This delay is about to be released soon. We will be equipped with advanced weapons that will preserve the lives of our soldiers, and give us additional crushing power to complete our missions.

And the third reason for a ceasefire – cutting off the arenas and isolating Hamas. From the second day of the war, Hamas counted on Hezbollah to fight alongside it. And with Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas was left alone in the campaign. Our pressure on him will increase, and this will help the sacred mission of freeing our hostages.

Citizens of Israel,

In the past year, we have turned the tables. We have been attacked on seven fronts, and we have fought a war that has been a hair’s breadth away. We are changing the face of the Middle East. We are doing all of this thanks to our heroic soldiers, thanks to your steadfastness, and thanks to the firm and intelligent management of the war

I have said many times: A good agreement is one that is enforced – and we We will enforce it.

With God’s help, we will establish security, make the North flourish, and continue together until Victory!”* said Prime Minister Netanyahu in his speech at 20.00 (Israeli time).

The strategy is democratically decided. We have a ceasefire for 60 days. Long live the ceasefire. For 60 days. Sharp.

The ceasefire agreement will go into effect at 4:00 a.m. on Wednesday morning, according to US President Joe Biden. Dogma: Any new land border that shrinks Israel is rejected.

* English translation is not official and authoritative. Only the linked Ivrit text is relevant and the video.